Have you noticed that in the last few days there has been a lot of talk amongst the cognoscenti that we are in a commodity boom bubble that is in the throes of bursting?
The pundits are not yet in full cry but there is a ground swell of ‘informed’ opinion that is beginning to paint the picture of oil retreating to below $100 a barrel, gold with $750 an ounce in their sights, even the soft commodities that feed the world and which have come off their tops recently are about to plunge.
Bursting bubbles are the latest fashion.
Having seen the dotcom crash, the housing bust, it is now becoming derigeur to see a bubble forming in every substantial rise in an asset class.
Fashion is a fickle thing, todays ‘in word’ can quickly become overused and become subject to ridicule, think of the over use of ‘awesome’ as an example.
Anybody now using that word as an exclamation is looked upon with a certain pity. Soon the use of a ‘bubble’ by commentators propounding the commodity boom bursting theory will meet with the same fate, or maybe even scorn.
Back to the future, oil supply will not satisfy demand even if American drivers give up their SUVs and cut down on their summer driving. ‘
Both China and India together with other emergent nations will more than take up the slack.
Then there is the rapidly escalating cost of current production, not to mention exploration and development. These factors are also common to just about every other commodity as the standard of living rises in the huge populations of the emerging countries.
We may see a blip as metals and oil are talked down and investors become nervous but when the going gets tough the tough get going. They will be buying commodities with every penny they can muster and raising their glasses to a continued commodities boom.
Category: Investment Research